From Risk to Resilience: Adapting LTL for Uncertain Times

In the second session of SMC³’s LTL 204 Hybrid Series, “Navigating Change in LTL,” industry analyst Adrian Gonzalez (president of Adelante SCM and founder and host of Talking Logistics) joined moderator Joe Tillman and co-moderator Dr. Karl Manrodt to explore how uncertainty, risk and rapid change are reshaping LTL.

Gonzalez framed today’s environment bluntly: uncertainty and risk are “turned to 11.” His playbook? Control what you can, modernize your tools and data, make procurement continuous and treat carriers as partners, not just price points.

Focus on what you can control

Today’s backdrop is unpredictable, but leaders still have levers. Gonzalez urged shippers and carriers to raise technology maturity, stay current on market and regulatory shifts and retire spreadsheet-era workflows. The goal is to create an operating model that translates signals into action.

Clean, current data can support every decision across planning, procurement and service recovery. The real advantage comes from cadence: a weekly review of demand, capacity, cost and service KPIs that drives concrete changes to networks, rates or routing.

If you are “still operating a business like it’s 1999 … with Excel spreadsheets and a lot of manual processing,” he cautioned, you will not be as agile or responsive as conditions demand. Secure executive sponsorship for upgrades, build change management into the plan and make data-driven action a habit, not a once-a-year exercise.

Mini-bids replace one-and-done procurement

The single annual RFP no longer matches the pace of change. More shippers are turning to mini-bids: smaller, more frequent procurement events focused on particular lanes or regions to keep agreements aligned with reality.

“A lot of shippers started moving away from … one big annual procurement engagement and started moving more towards mini-bids to better align with current market conditions,” he said.

In tight markets, mini-bids help secure capacity and stabilize service levels. In loose markets, they let shippers capture savings without being stuck with year-old rates. Instead of a once-a-year reset, procurement becomes an ongoing conversation grounded in shared data and forecasts.

Relationships compound value

Price matters, but Gonzalez emphasized that service and trust increasingly outweigh a purely transactional approach.

“I think what I see now is a much more collaborative approach,” he said.

The mandate is to identify who your core carriers truly are and then treat them accordingly. Leading shippers share forecasts, event calendars and capacity requirements proactively, not just when disruptions arise. Carriers that reciprocate with transparency and flexibility become integral to strategic planning rather than interchangeable providers.

For strategic lanes and customers, on-time performance, low claims ratios and safety records often justify paying a premium, because you’re protecting the relationships that define your brand.

Density and data discipline are the new currency

Class-based rating won’t disappear overnight, but density-driven pricing is expanding quickly. This is where data discipline becomes specific and practical.

“You can look at it as disruptive, or you can see it as an opportunity to do things differently and innovate,” he said.

In practice, this means investing in dimensioning equipment, validating the item master so that SKUs are tied to packaging and dimensions, aligning NMFC classifications and codifying packaging standards for stackability and overhang. Close the loop by feeding reweigh and inspection results back into the master so exceptions don’t repeat.

For carriers, better density data reduces reweigh disputes and helps balance networks. For shippers, it enables sharper forecasting, more accurate lane bids and faster, fairer negotiations. The payoff is fewer surprises, fewer disputes and smoother collaboration across the network.

Automation with a human core

Automation and AI are accelerating across LTL, from tendering and planning to robots in terminals, but Gonzalez was clear that technology should amplify people, not sideline them.

“Automate the routine so people can focus on exceptions and relationships,” he said.

In practice, this means utilizing systems to manage standard rating, tendering, dimension capture and proactive alerts, while training teams to coordinate across partners, communicate changes promptly and make time-sensitive trade-offs during disruptions. The strongest networks pair smart automation with human judgment where it matters most.

Leadership that leans into change

Tools and tactics matter, but culture determines whether you adapt. Gonzalez warned against complacency and urged leaders to institutionalize curiosity and experimentation.

“Stay a little paranoid … expect change, embrace it and reward people for trying new things,” he said.

That means listening to younger employees who are closer to emerging shifts, creating room to test new approaches and regularly asking, “If we had to start over today, how would we do this?” The organizations that thrive are the ones that make adaptation a habit, not a reaction.

Gonzalez’s successful approach for today’s environment ultimately combines practicality with cultural versatility. As regulations change, pricing strategies evolve and networks restructure, the most successful organizations will be those that remain adaptable, prioritize data discipline and leverage partnerships as growth drivers.

Interested in joining LTL Hybrid Sessions? Register here: https://smc3.info/LTLedu